Americans Could Set Record For Air, Auto Travel This July 4th

Americans are poised to set travel records this Independence Day, beating the 2019 marks hit for both air and car mileage while likely shrugging off persistent high fuel and travel ticket costs to celebrate the summer holiday.

The travel association AAA projects that 50.7 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more for the Fourth of July, outpacing the pre-pandemic record of 49 million travelers in 2019.

Most travelers will be taking the road, with AAA estimating 43.2 million will travel by automobile for the Fourth of July, more than the 42.2 million in 2022, the current high point for the holiday. Air travel this year is also expected to set records, with 4.17 million Americans flying during the holiday weekend, an 11.2% jump from last year's holiday and the most since 3.91 million Americans in 2019 traveled by air for the Fourth.

An additional 3.36 million will travel by bus, cruise, or train this year, an increase of 24% from 2022 but still short of 2019’s 3.54 million who traveled by other methods.

“We’ve never projected travel numbers this high for Independence Day weekend,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president of AAA Travel. “What this tells us is that despite inventory being limited and some prices 50% higher, consumers are not cutting back on travel this summer. Many of them heeded our advice and booked early, another sign of strong travel demand.”

Travelers Ignoring Costs

Travelers are moving ahead with their itineraries despite costs, continuing a trend from last year, when gas prices averaged around $4.80 a gallon over the 2022 summer, which didn’t stop July Fourth trips from setting record automobile travel. While the current average of $3.50 to $3.60 a gallon isn’t as high this summer, travelers are facing airfare that is on average 40% to 50% higher than last year, but bookings are up nonetheless. 

The AAA projections come after statistics from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) showed a record number of Americans traveled to kick off the summer vacation season over the Memorial Day holiday in May. 

Pulling Back on Spending, Plans

The AAA record Fourth of July projections come as a Morgan Stanley survey shows consumer interest in travel in general could be softening. A Morgan Stanley AlphaWise US Consumer Pulse Survey showed that 60% of Americans who responded are planning to travel over the next six months, up marginally from the same period last year.

But only 19% said they plan to travel more this year compared with last, while 38% expected to travel less due to economic worries. The survey also showed that 38% expected to spend less on summer travel than last year, while 23% anticipated spending more.